Blogging by the Bushel
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Small Grains Update: Survey respondents who reported barley, oats, Durum wheat, or other spring wheat acreage as not yet harvested in Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming during the surveys conducted in preparation for the Small Grains 2014 Summary, released September 30, 2014, were re-contacted in late October to determine how many of those acres were actually harvested and record the actual production from those acres. Based on this updated information, several changes were made to the estimates published in the Small Grains 2014 Summary. Because un harvested production is a component of on-farm stocks, changes were made to the September 1 on-farm stocks levels comparable with the production adjustments.

Corn production is forecast at 14.4 billion bushels, down slightly from the previous forecast, but up 3 percent from 2013. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 173.4 bushels per acre, down 0.8 bushel from the previous forecast but 14.6 bushels above the 2013 average. If realized, this will be the highest yield and production on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.1 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 5 percent from 2013.

Soybean production is forecast at a record 3.96 billion bushels, up less than 1 percent from October and up 18 percent from last year. Based on November 1 conditions, yields are expected to average a record high 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushel from last month and up 3.5 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at a record 83.4 million acres, unchanged from last month.

All cotton production is forecast at 16.4 million 480-pound bales, up less than 1 percent from last month and up 27 percent from last year. Yield is expected to average 797 pounds per harvested acre, down 24 pounds from last year. Upland cotton production is forecast at 15.8 million 480-pound bales, up 29 percent from 2013. Pima cotton production, forecast at 578,000 bales, was carried forward from last month.

OILSEEDS:  U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 117.2 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month on increased soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production.  Soybean production is forecast at 3,958 million bushels, up 31 million on higher yields.  The soybean yield is projected at a record 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushels mainly on gains for Iowa and South Dakota.  Soybean supplies for 2014/15 are projected 1 percent above the October forecast.

U.S. soybean exports for 2014/15 are raised 20 million bushels to 1,720 million reflecting the record pace of export sales through late October.  Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1,780 million mostly due to increased soybean meal exports.  Domestic soybean meal consumption is reduced slightly in line with changes in the 2013/14 balance sheet.  Soybean ending stocks are projected at 450 million bushels, unchanged from the previous forecast.

Soybean and soybean product prices for 2014/15 are unchanged from last month.  The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $9.00 to $11.00 per bushel.  Soybean meal and soybean oil prices are projected at $330 to $370 per short ton and 34 to 38 cents per pound, respectively.

Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 528.9 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month.  Higher soybean and rapeseed production are only partly offset by a lower sunflowerseed forecast.  Global soybean production is projected at a record 312.1 million tons reflecting the increase for the United States.   Global rapeseed production is raised to 70.7 million tons on a record EU harvest.  Gains for EU are partly offset by a reduction for Australia where dry conditions in the southeast have reduced yield prospects.  Global sunflowerseed production is reduced 0.4 million tons to 39.8 million on lower forecasts for Russia and Kazakhstan which are partly offset by gains for EU and Serbia.  Other changes include reduced cottonseed production for China and Australia.

Global oilseed trade for 2014/15 is projected at 134.6 million tons, up 0.6 million from last month.  Increased soybean exports from the United States and Ukraine and increased rapeseed exports from Canada account for most of the change.  Global oilseed crush is projected higher mainly on gains for soybeans in the United States, China, Ukraine, and South Korea.  Partly offsetting is a reduction in soybean crush for Argentina.  Rapeseed crush is raised for EU and China.  Global oilseed ending stocks are projected lower at 103.0 million tons on reduced rapeseed stocks in Canada and Australia.

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