Blogging by the Bushel
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USDA NASS: Sept Crop Production – Corn Highlights

 Corn production is forecast at 10.7 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent from the August forecast and down 13 percent from 2011. This represents the  lowest production in the United States since 2006. Based on conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 122.8 bushels per acre, down 0.6 bushel from the August forecast and 24.4 bushels below the 2011 average. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 1995. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.4 million acres, unchanged from the August forecast but up 4 percent from 2011.

 USDA NASS: Sept Crop Production – Soybean Highlights

 Soybean production is forecast at 2.63 billion bushels, down 2 percent from August and down 14 percent from last year. Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 35.3 bushels per acre, down 0.8 bushel from last month and down 6.2 bushels from last year. Compared with last month, yield forecasts are lower or unchanged across the Great Plains and most of the Corn Belt as lingering drought conditions continued to hamper yield expectations. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at 74.6 million acres, unchanged from August but up 1 percent from last year.

 USDA’s WASDE Sept Highlights – Wheat

 WHEAT:  The 2012/13 U.S. wheat balance sheet is unchanged this month; however, small by-class adjustments are made to projected exports and stocks.  Projected exports for Hard Red Winter wheat are lowered 25 million bushels with Hard Red Spring and White wheat exports raised 15 million bushels and 10 million bushels, respectively.  Corresponding changes are made to projected ending stocks for these three classes.  The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average farm price is lowered to $7.50 to $8.70 per bushel compared with $7.60 to $9.00 per bushel last month.  Prices reported for the summer months, when producers typically market nearly half the crop, have remained well below cash bids and futures prices, suggesting substantial forward pricing by producers earlier in the year.

 Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 3.1 million tons lower mostly due to lower expected production in Russia.  An increase in foreign beginning stocks partly offsets the projected 4.1-million-ton reduction in world wheat output.  Beginning stocks are raised for Canada and Egypt, but lowered for Argentina.  Production for Russia is reduced 4.0 million tons with lower reported area and reduced yields as harvest results confirm additional drought and heat damage to both the winter and spring wheat crops.  Production is also lowered 0.5 million tons for adjoining Kazakhstan, which experienced the same adverse drought and heat during July and August that affected spring wheat in the central and eastern growing regions of Russia.  EU-27 production is lowered 0.5 million tons mostly reflecting lower expected yields in the United Kingdom.  Ukraine production is raised 0.5 million tons based on higher reported yields.  Production for Afghanistan is raised 0.4 million tons mostly on higher reported area.

 Global wheat consumption for 2012/13 is lowered 2.6 million tons mostly on lower wheat feed and residual use in Russia and Kazakhstan.  Food use is also lowered slightly for both countries with additional reductions projected for food use in Egypt and Nigeria.  Food use is raised for Afghanistan, Iran, and Libya.  

 Global wheat trade for 2012/13 is lowered slightly this month with imports reduced for China, Egypt, EU-27, Israel, and Nigeria.  Import increases for Turkey and Iran limit the global decline in trade.  Exports are reduced 2.0 million tons for Ukraine based on the recent agreement between government officials and grain traders to limit shipments because of concerns about tightening domestic supplies.  Higher expected exports for Brazil, EU-27, and Turkey mostly make up for the Ukraine reduction.

 World ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 0.5 million tons lower with changes to a number of countries.  The largest declines in stocks are for Russia, EU-27, China, Brazil, and Argentina.  The largest increases are for Ukraine, Canada, Iran, and Turkey.

 September 2012 USDA Crop Prod, World Supply/Demand Report

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       US Production     

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**USDA Sept 12/13 Corn Production: 10.727 bln bu; expected 10.3 bln bu; prior rpt = 10.779

**USDA Sept 12/13 Corn Yield: 122.8 bu/ac; expected 120.6 bpa; prior rpt = 123.4 bu/ac

**USDA Sept12/13 Soybean Production: 2.634 bln bu; expected 2.64 bln bu; prior rpt = 2.692

**USDA Sept 12/13 Soybean Yield: 35.3 bu/ac; expected 35.5 bpa; prior rpt = 36.1 bu/ac

**USDA Sept 12/13 Corn Used for US Ethanol: 4.50 bln bu vs Aug 4.50 bln bu

**USDA Sept Winter Wheat 2012 Production: 2.268 bln bu; est 2.22 bln bu; prior rpt = 2.268

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       US Carryout or Ending Stocks    

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**USDA Sept US Corn 11/12 Carryout:  1.181 bln bu; est 1.00 bln bu; prior rpt = 1.021 bln bu.

**USDA Sept US Soybean 11/12 Carryout: 0.130 bln bu; est 0.136 bln bu; prior rpt = 0.145 bb

**USDA Sept US Corn 12/13 Carryout:  0.733 bln bu; est 0.62 bln bu; prior rpt = 0.650

**USDA Sept US Wheat 12/13 Carryout:  0.698 bln bu; est 0.71 bln bu; prior rpt = 0.698

**USDA Sept US Soybean 12/13 Carryout:  0.115 bln bu; est 0.10 bln bu; prior rpt = 0.115

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       World Carryout   

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**WASDE September World 11/12 Wheat Carryout: 198.64 mmt; prior rpt = 197.59

**WASDE September World 11/12 Corn Carryout: 139.60 mmt; prior rpt = 135.97

**WASDE September World 11/12 Soybeans Carryout: 53.7 mmt; prior rpt = 51.9

**WASDE September World 12/13 Wheat Carryout: 176.7 mmt; prior rpt = 177.2

**WASDE September World 12/13 Corn Carryout: 124.0 mmt; prior rpt = 123.3

**WASDE September World 12/13 Soybeans Carryout: 53.1 mmt; prior rpt = 53.4

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       World Production

       Corn, Soybeans, Wheat

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**WASDE September China 12/13 Corn Output: 200.0 mmt; prior rpt = 200.0

**WASDE September S Africa 12/13 Corn Output: 13.5 mmt; prior rpt = 13.5

**WASDE September Argentina 12/13 Corn Output: 28.0 mmt; prior rpt = 28.0

**WASDE September Brazil 12/13 Corn Output: 70.00 mmt; prior rpt = 70.0

**WASDE September EU 12/13 Corn Output: 57.14 mmt; prior rpt = 61.5

**WASDE September FSU 12/13 Corn Output: 32.06 mmt; prior rpt = 32.1

**WASDE September Ukraine 12/13 Corn Output: 21.0 mmt; prior rpt = 21.0

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**WASDE September Aussie 12/13 Wheat Output: 26.0 mmt; prior rpt = 26.0

**WASDE September Argentina 12/13 Wheat Output: 11.50 mmt; prior rpt = 11.5

**WASDE September EU 12/13 Wheat Output: 132.37 mmt; prior rpt = 132.9

**WASDE September Canada 12/13 Wheat Output: 27.0 mmt; prior rpt = 27.0

**WASDE September China 12/13 Wheat Output: 118.0 mmt; prior rpt = 118.0

**WASDE September Russia 12/13 Wheat Output: 39.0 mmt; prior rpt = 43.0

**WASDE September Kazakhstan 12/13 Wheat Output: 10.50 mmt; prior rpt = 11.00

**WASDE September Ukraine 12/13 Wheat Output: 15.50 mmt; prior rpt = 15.0

**WASDE September India 12/13 Wheat Output: 93.9 mmt; prior rpt = 93.9

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**WASDE September Brazil 12/13 Soybean Output: 81.0 mmt; prior rpt = 81.0

**WASDE September Argentina 12/13 Soybean Output: 55.0 mmt; prior rpt = 55.0

**WASDE September China 12/13 Soybean Output: 12.60 mmt; prior rpt = 12.6

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