Blogging by the Bushel
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Market Report

Thursday October 12th, 2017

December 17 corn closed up 3 at $3.49 and March 18 closed up 3 ¼ at $3.62 ¾. November beans closed up 26 ¾ at $9.92 and January 18 closed up 26 ½ at $10.02 ½. December wheat closed down 2 ¾ at $4.30 ½ and July 18 closed down 3 ¼ at $4.75 ¼.

Corn traded unchanged to 2¾-3½ cents higher today, bouncing from contract lows in the December contract month following the release of the WASDE report. Most of the strength in corn can be attributed to the rally in the soybean market.

Soybean futures traded 27¼-27¾ cents higher today rallying from a lower bean yield number in today’s WASDE report. The rally in beans sparked a large amount of cash bean selling from producers today.

The wheat markets traded lower today following the release of the somewhat bearish (but expected) WASDE numbers that confirmed large domestic and world wheat stocks.

October 2017 USDA Crop Production, World Supply/Demand Report Headline Recap

US Production

**USDA October US 2017 Corn Production: 14.280 mln bu.; expected 14.2 mln bushels; prev rpt 14.184

**USDA October US 2017 Corn Yields: 171.8 bpa; expected 170.0 bpa; prev rpt 169.9

**USDA October US 2017 Soybean Production: 4.431 mln bu.; expected 4.45 mln bushels; prev rpt 4.431

**USDA October US 2017 Soybean Yields: 49.5 bpa; expected 50.0 bpa; prev rpt 49.9

**USDA October US 2017 Corn Used for Ethanol: 5.475 bln

US Carryout

**USDA October US Corn 17/18 Carryout: 2.340 bln bu; expected 2.29 bln bu; prior rpt = 2.335

**USDA October US Wheat 17/18 Carryout: 0.960 bln bu; expected 0.945 bln bu; prior rpt = 0.933

**USDA October US Soybean 17/18 Carryout: 0.430 bln bu; expected 0.447 bln bu; prior rpt = 0.475

**USDA October US Soyoil 17/18 Carryout: 1.537 bln lbs; prior = 1.757

**USDA October US Soymeal 17/18 Carryout: 300,000 T; prior rpt = 300,000

USDA World Carryout

**WASDE October World 17/18 Wheat Carryout: 268.1 mmt; expected  mmt; prior rpt = 263.1

**WASDE October World 17/18 Corn Carryout: 201.0 mmt; expected  mmt; prior rpt = 202.5

**WASDE October World 17/18 Soybean Carryout: 96.1 mmt; expected  mmt; prior rpt = 96.0

USDA WASDE World Production

**WASDE October China 17/18 Corn Output: 215.0 mmt; prior rpt = 215.0

**WASDE October S Africa 17/18 Corn Output: 12.5 mmt; prior rpt = 12.5

**WASDE October Argentina 17/18 Corn Output: 42.0 mmt; prior rpt = 42.0

**WASDE October Brazil 17/18 Corn Output: 95.0 mmt; prior rpt = 95.0

USDA October 2017 Crop Production – Highlights

Corn Production Up 1 Percent from September Forecast

Soybean Production Down Slightly

Corn production is forecast at 14.3 billion bushels, down 6 percent from last year but up 1 percent from the September forecast. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 171.8 bushels per acre, up 1.9 bushels from the September forecast but down 2.8 bushels from 2016. If realized, this will be the second highest yield and production on record for the United States. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 83.1 million acres, down less than 1 percent from the previous estimate and down 4 percent from 2016.

Soybean production is forecast at a record 4.43 billion bushels, down slightly from September but up 3 percent from last year. Based on October 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 49.5 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushel from last month and down 2.5 bushels from last year. Area for harvest in the United States is forecast at a record high 89.5 million acres, up 1 percent from September and up 8 percent from 2016.  Acreage updates were made in several States based on a thorough review of all available data.

Anna Kaverman

anna@mercerlandmark.com

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