Blogging by the Bushel
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Market Report

Tuesday October 3rd, 2017

December 17 corn closed down 2 at $3.49 ½ and March 18 closed down 2 at $3.62 ¼. November beans closed down 2 at $9.55 ¼ and January 18 closed down 1 ¾ at $9.66. December wheat closed up 3 ¼ at $4.48 and July 18 closed up 1 at $4.90. Crude oil closed down $.16 at $50.74.

Instead of “Turnaround” Tuesday, we had “Pin-Drop” Tuesday – as in, trade and activity was so quiet, you could hear a pin drop.  The funds were viewed net sellers of over 5,000 corn today, which would leave them net short close to 170,000 corn futures and options. Rain complaints remained the general theme of conversations today, particularly in the upper/west portions of the Corn Belt. 1-4 inch totals noted in some areas Monday into early Tuesday. A new disturbance will impact the western Corn Belt Thursday and Friday with rain totals during that time expected to range from 1.00 to 2.00 inches and locally more. The precipitation will concentrate on the region from Nebraska through Iowa to Wisconsin, including parts of the wettest region from last night. These factors will likely do little to speed up the sluggish pace of corn harvest to date. The markets did not seem to pay much heed to the lack of rain in Brazil’s Mato Grosso province.  Other growing areas in Brazil tended to fare better, which should allow for more aggressive first crop corn planting.

Soybean prices couldn’t hold on to early morning gains, finishing Tuesday slightly down. November prices fell 2 cents to close at $9.5525, while January 2018 prices were down 1.75 cents to close at $9.66. From Monday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report, overall soybean good-to-excellent ratings remained steady at 60% – however, crop rated “good” dropped 1% while crop rated “excellent” rose 1%. Harvest raced ahead to 24% complete, which is more than double the progress from a week ago (11%) and nearly matches the pace of the five-year average (26%). Unharvested soybeans are maturing quickly, with 81% now dropping leaves (up from 63% a week ago). August soybean crush came in at 151.6 million bushels. That’s a bit less than expected but enough to tally 1.904 billion for the year (9 million bushels ahead of USDA estimates).

The wheat complex finished the night a little stronger, maybe buoyed a little from the GASC tender after Monday’s close. With Russian wheat prices firming over the past several weeks, offers this morning were a couple dollars above offers from a few weeks ago. The wheat complex was able to extend gains a bit during the day, but Chicago once again struggled with the $4.50 level, an area it had problems with during early September. The market is developing a lot of overhead following Friday’s crop report, but that does not mean we cannot see more of a bounce. However, it may be difficult to find a trigger to a rally back into new highs. Egypt announced after Monday’s close they were in for wheat for Nov 5-15 shipment. They ended up buying 180 MT of Russian wheat.

Anna Kaverman

anna@mercerlandmark.com

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