Blogging by the Bushel
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At times, words in the German language appear excessively long, almost like they are trying to cram a full sentence into a single word but often they are really quite literal.  Take Mittwoch. That is the word for Wednesday, or mid-week, which is of course where we stand today.  That actually sounds so much better than hump-day but regardless, it is that transitional point in the week when many begin to think forward to the weekend and time off and enthusiasm for work can begin to wane as well.  This somewhat appear to be the case in the markets overnight as volume of trade seems to be slowing but unlike last week at this time, bears have not reemerged to take prices lower.  We have corn and wheat steady to higher, beans strong.  Energies are firmer this morning as well, with metals soft and the dollar a smidge lower.  While this could be the calm before the next storm, we would like to believe prices have reached a point of value and we can begin tracking sideways until we see what Uncle Sam holds in store next week.

The latest crop estimate comes courtesy of FC Stone.  They have estimated the corn yield at 165 bpa with a total crop size of 13.381 billion.  This would be 1.8 bpa lower on yield from the July USDA estimate equating to 149 million bushels less.  While that does not sound like much of a cut in production, if usage was left unchanged, that would equate to a 9% drop in ending stocks.  For soybeans they came up with a yield of 45 bpa and production of 3.797 billion.  Compared with the July USDA estimates this would be down 1 bushel in yield and 88 million in total production.  Informa is set to release their estimates later this morning and we should be hearing survey averages by the end of the week.

Outside of this it would appear market has little else to focus on.  There is moisture forecast to move across Missouri and then up the Ohio Valley over the next 24 to 48 hours with several other small rain systems in the cards in the Midwest over the next week to 10 days.  Temperatures are expected to remain at normal to below normal readings.

There is nothing so literal in the German words for Thursday and Friday so for now we will just have to remain patient for another “woche” to find out what the USDA believes our crop size is currently.

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