Blogging by the Bushel
With numerous challenges over the past several years for producers, we at Mercer Landmark understand the need for a comprehensive risk management solution. We seek to provide our customers with unparalleled service to ensure maximum results.

This article echos the blog that was posted a few days ago about the 10 year corn production. Illinois truly is going to be the swing state this year.

Grain Market Commentary
Monday, July 20, 2015
by Amy Sage, Executive Account Representative, Champaign, IL

This year, Iowa planted about 15% of the US corn acres this year and as of Sunday, July 12 the state is still rated 82% good-to-excellent and on pace for an above average crop. Indiana accounts for 6.5% of this year’s corn acreage and unfortunately conditions have been declining as weeks go on and as of July 12, were down to 46% good-to-excellent. Stuck in the middle of the “I” states is good ole Illinois which many are calling the “wild card” for the 2015 corn crop.

Illinois is responsible for growing 13% of the US corn acres, second only to Iowa. Conditions across the state are so variable that analysts are all over the board with yield estimates, mostly ranging from 165 to 175. To put this in perspective, for every 7 bushels per acre that Illinois is adjusted, the national yield will increase/decrease by about 1 bushel. Each 1 bushel per acre change in national yield adjusts the supply side by 81 million bushels.

Even if weather is perfect going forward, the hope for additional yield potential is virtually non-existent. There have been significant areas that have taken substantial yield hits because of the extremely wet season. There are, however, significant areas that look great and while most won’t touch last year’s numbers, they certainly have the potential for an above average corn crop. We’ve had concerns around nitrogen loss, stands, and photosynthesis, but most of our Champaign draw feels fortunate (with the exception of some pocket areas). This variability is why there is such a discrepancy in estimates amongst traders. We spent some time here talking to different folks across the state and would use 168-169 for Illinois yield based on today’s conditions. Keep an eye on how these conditions change week by week as small adjustments will be crucial to the overall corn supply.

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