Blogging by the Bushel
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Do you have your coin ready?  As the trade begins to feel more and more comfortable that we have been successful at planting our crops this year and that they have gotten off to a good start, we should be quickly transitioning into a summer weather market. That means, flip a coin as to what that outcome may hold and hence the market activity.  Heads; weather problems, tails; continued good growing conditions.  Certainly there will be market noise and activity generated by other factors such as the direction of the dollar, a surprise sale or cancellation, quarterly grain stocks reports, etc., but as a whole traders will pay particular attention to shifts in the weather. In fairness, there is more to weather prediction and market analysis than flipping coins but for those 60 to 90 days between June and August it seem little else matters.   Keep in perspective though, in a global market we need to view weather globally as well.

This morning at least, it did not feel much like great growing weather as it was 45 degrees or less in areas, when I stepped out of the house but the sub-normal temperatures should be behind us by tomorrow and market concerns of frost in the Dakotas seem a distant memory.  Rain continues to fall across the western and central Plains and moisture hampers field work to the south but with a prediction of warming temperatures I suspect bulls will find little footing with that outlook.

The dollar was stronger again overnight and this appears to have been a focus in the grain trade this week but the strength does appear to have faded now as we reached into the morning hours.  The strength in dollar appears to have been stimulated by a sentiment that the US economy could be gaining momentum, which is somewhat debatable, but probably motivated even more so by the ongoing saga in Greece. This has once again raised the entire debate as to if Greece will be booted from the EU and that kind of uncertainty pushes traders to the relative security of the U.S. dollar.

There seems to be little else to drive prices this morning.  Export sales tomorrow morning but these should be routine as the US faces stiff competition for all commodities right now.  I do not believe the 120k MT of beans announced to China yesterday will be in the figures.  For now, we keep a watchful eye on changes in the weather and keep those coins handy.

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